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Friday, June 12, 2009


No doubt about it: Democrats win the NC House and Senate, but the General Assembly cowers before the Religious Right.

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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

The Rise & Fall of Terry McAuliffe 

The Mr. Motor Mouth of the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries got stomped badly yesterday in the Virginia Democratic primary for governor, losing to former state senator Creigh Deeds.

And Public Policy Polling, our very active Raleigh outfit, gets bragging rights for pretty much nailing the outcome.

McAuliffe, for all his famous fundraising skills and indefatigable happy-talk, just doesn't wear well. We certainly got more than adequately chafed by his constant presence on cable news last February, March, and April, ignoring reality for the sake of Hillary.

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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

N.C. GOP Stands Tall for Bullying Gay Kids 

The School Violence Protection Act, Senate Bill 526, passed the N.C. Senate yesterday. Not a single Republican senator voted for it because it recognized gay and lesbian students as potential targets of bullying. Republican politicians don't want to get caught being "gay friendly," no indeedy.

So Public Policy Polling's discussion today deserves some attention. In March, PPP found that 69% of the general public support the sexual orientation provision in the bill, and even a 51% majority of Republicans support the bill. Writes Tom Jensen,
This is a pretty good example of how legislative Republicans marginalize themselves and why Democrats have generally been able to keep control of the legislature in election years that otherwise went very well for the GOP. The truth is that the issues they choose to lose sleep over are outside the mainstream of even much of the Republican base.

In other words, the Republicans in the state senate are considerably to the right of even their base, who don't seem all that concerned that protecting gay kids from getting beat up is going to lead to Sodom&Gomorra, right here in River City!

Anyone waiting for the "rebranding" of Republicanism in N.C. needs to pack several meals and a bedroll.

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Thursday, February 05, 2009

Dick Burr Has a Hacking Cough 

By way of Public Policy Polling, who got the analysis from The King of the Polling Nerds, Nate Silver, NC Sen. Dick Burr, who voted FOR George W. Bush's Big Bank Giveaway but who can't countenance President Obama's economic stimulus, is waaay out there in his opposition to the new president, especially given that Obama carried NC: "Burr has been the least cooperative of any Senator whose state did give its electoral votes to the President."

Gunny Freedom, a poster on the thread linked above, sez "Burr is a failure because he is a partisan hack."

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Saturday, November 15, 2008

Heath Shuler for U.S. Senate? 

We've barely gotten one election past us, and there're people already talking about Richard Burr's U.S. Senate seat in 2010, and truth to tell (hang on to your gag reflex!) we're just a year and a month away from the candidate filing period for the 2010 general election.

Yesterday the Hendersonville Times-News runs a long article essentially beating the drum for Shuler to take on Burr. Shuler, after easily winning his first reelection race against a weak if not unstable opponent, seems more than willing for people to puff up his ego even further than he's puffed it up himself. "Heath the Giant Killer."

Now this morning, Public Policy Polling is up with a post seconding the Shuler nomination, saying that the only state-wide Democrat who could rival him as a winning Senate candidate would be Attorney General Roy Cooper. PPP takes it a step further by helpfully mentioning a couple of local state legislators who could handily win Shuler's House seat, if he vacates it to run for Senate. This we doubt, though PPP's statistics are impressive about how both of Shuler's potential replacements in the NC-11 did in their own reelections.

But leaving a now strong Democratic seat open in the overwhelmingly Republican NC-11 looks mighty iffy to us, though (okay, we'll admit it) we thought a candidate named Hagan had exactly no chance in 2008.

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Monday, October 20, 2008

Obama, Hagan Expand N.C. Leads 

Late-breaking news from Public Policy Polling. Here and here.

From the PPP press release:
Barack Obama is now out to his largest lead yet in a PPP survey of North Carolina, polling at 51% in the state compared to 44% for John McCain. Last week Obama's advantage was 49-46.

Independent voters continue to move toward Obama in droves. He now has a 51-33 lead with them. He's also now up to receiving 82% of the Democratic vote. Staying over the 80% threshold there would almost certainly ensure a victory in North Carolina.

McCain now leads among white voters just 55-39, an edge that's not nearly enough given Obama's 92-6 lead with black voters. George W. Bush won about two thirds of the white vote against both John Kerry and Al Gore in North Carolina....

In North Carolina's US Senate race challenger Kay Hagan continues to lead incumbent Elizabeth Dole, as she has now in PPP's last seven surveys of the race. Hagan's advantage is now up to 49-42. Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38. She's also shoring up her support with the key Democratic constituency of black voters, with whom she is now ahead 84-7, an improvement from 78-12 a week ago....

PPP surveyed 1,200 likely voters on October 18th and 19th. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.8%....

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Monday, September 29, 2008

A Second N.C. Poll Puts Obama in Lead 

It was Republican pollster Rassmussen last week that had Obama leading McCain by two points in N.C.

Today the Democratic polling shop of Public Policy Polling, a home-grown N.C. outfit, has Obama up by the same two points, with the tanking economy leading the way as the number one reason for the turn-around.

"Independents are moving toward Obama in droves," saith PPP. The economy moves them too, of course, but the kind of racist caricaturing of Obama that came to us today in three different e-mails -- Obama as a shoeshine hunched over a triumphantly grinning Sarah Palin's feet -- is not helping John McCain among the independents (who happen to be in large part the youngest members of the electorate and who have managed to get a few steps beyond this kind of gutter racism, unlike their elders).

Palin herself encouraged the racist attacks by referring to Obama as "Sambo" when he beat "that bitch Clinton" in the primaries.

Obama's leading McCain in N.C. polling actually seems to have something to do with Sarah Palin as a negative drag on McCain among Tarheels. The same PPP poll found that Palin's favorability rating went from +8 to -3 in North Carolina in three weeks, a negative shift of 11 points:
She is particularly unpopular with independents in North Carolina. 46% of them now say her selection makes them less likely to vote for John McCain compared to just 36% who say her spot on the ticket makes them more inclined to support him. Even among Republicans enthusiasm for her has dropped from 75% to 67%.

Buyers remorse.

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Friday, September 05, 2008

Junior Johnson Endorses Roy Carter for Congress 


As endorsements go, this one's fairly significant in the 5th Dist.

And by the way, recent polling shows the Carter-Foxx match-up the closest Congressional district race in the state of North Carolina, according to Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling.

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Hagan Pulls Ahead of Dole in Senate Race 

Public Policy Polling credits the "Liddy Dole is 93" ads paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

You can expect Liddy to counter-punch. She still has a pile o' cash approximately as high as an elephant's eye.

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Monday, June 02, 2008

The Barr Effect 

Public Policy Polling is tracking the presidential race in N.C. now with Bob Barr factored in. Make up your own mind what it all means. But one thing appears crystal clear: Barr ain't helping John McSame.

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