WataugaWatch

According to the Swing State Project (via PPP), in the last election only 23 Republican members of the House did worse than John McCain within their own districts. Two of those 23 were Virginia Foxx (NC-5) and Patrick McHenry (NC-10). McHenry's performance relative to the party's presidential nominee was the sixth worst of any member of the GOP caucus.

Tom Jensen at PPP has remarked before that these statistics suggest just how strong Roy Carter and Daniel Johnson were as challengers to Foxx and McHenry, even though they lost. Jensen also opines that the NC-5 and NC-10 are "completely unwinnable" for Dems, based on the "current configuration" of those districts.

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Patrick McHenry, Roy Carter, Tom Jensen, Virginia Foxx

Four-foot-one-inch Congressman Patrick McHenry has loaned himself $175,000 to keep his campaign for reelection in the NC-10 on life-support.

"McHenry spokesman Brock McCleary said the loan shows the Cherryville Republican is 'willing to make a personal investment in his fight for good jobs and lower gas prices for North Carolina.' "

Say what?

That's a slippery slope the Lit'lest Angel has bravely stepped out on (just ask Hillary Clinton). But whatta ya gonna do? Fundraising goes dry, your opponent (Daniel Johnson) is coming on strong, scandal stalks you like a pregnant thought, key members of your own party in your own district hate your guts...

It's not the number of zeros on the check. It's how you spend the money, Congressman.

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Patrick McHenry

The Cook Political Report has downgraded a couple of dozen "solid Republican" House districts to "likely Republican" and advises its subscribers, "While it's not likely that a majority of the races moved from 'Solid' to 'Likely' Republican will become competitive by November, the poor national climate for the GOP and the DCCC's unprecedented financial edge makes even very difficult districts for Democrats worth keeping tabs on."

Patrick McHenry is on the list in North Carolina, showing movement toward his challenger Daniel Johnson.

The complete list:

AL-03 Mike Rogers Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-08 Ric Keller Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ID-01 Bill Sali Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IN-03 Mark Souder Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IA-04 Tom Latham Solid Republican to Likely Republican
KY-02 OPEN (Lewis) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MN-02 John Kline Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NE-02 Lee Terry Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NV-02 Dean Heller Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NJ-05 Scott Garrett Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NY-13 OPEN (Fossella) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
NY-25 OPEN (Walsh) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
NC-10 Patrick McHenry Solid Republican to Likely Republican
OH-07 OPEN (Hobson) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-03 Phil English Likely Republican to Lean Republican
PA-05 OPEN (Peterson) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-11 Paul Kanjorksi Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic
PA-15 Charlie Dent Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TX-07 John Culberson Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TX-10 Michael McCaul Solid Republican to Likely Republican
VA-05 Virgil Goode Solid Republican to Likely Republican
VA-10 Frank Wolf Solid Republican to Likely Republican
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WY-AL OPEN (Cubin) Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Patrick McHenry

Lee Teague, Mecklenburg County's GOP chairman, has volunteered some interesting political wisdom for 2008:

Teague says, "This shouting Liberal! Liberal! Liberal! stuff is not going to work this year." Teague calls it a mistake for Republicans to "nationalize" this year's election by linking local candidates to Washington "liberal" politicians. "You nationalize an election when your party is popular in national polls, not when it's unpopular," Teague said. Bush's approval is under 30 percent in many polls. "We've got to win the voters back again."

What prompted such honest talk from the chair of the Mecklenburg County Republican Party? Patrick McHenry, 10th Dist. Congressman, that's who. McHenry had just issued a press release calling Daniel Johnson, his Democratic opponent this fall, a hand-picked Pelosi Democrat, yadda yadda yadda. Which peeved Teague no end. So he sent an e-mail to a reporter.

The resulting story that the journalist wrote also includes pretty interesting quotes from other Republican big-wigs, all pretty much agreeing with Teague.

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Lee Teague, liberal, Mecklenburg County Republican Party, Patrick McHenry

Democratic candidate Daniel Johnson (left, with Fletcher McCrady), running against little Patty McHenry in the NC-10, gets more star treatment today in the Charlotte Observer in a piece written by Jim Morrill.

Pundits and informed observers are now speaking about the Johnson/McHenry contest as "a realigning election." It's already historic in that Johnson has raised more money in a safe Republican district than any other Democrat in living memory.

So McHenry is gonna have a run for his (big) money. That $800 thou he's got in the bank may not be enough. Ten times that may not be enough.

Hear that, Virginia?

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Patrick McHenry, Virginia Foxx

1. Poor Pat McCrory. The Republican candidate for NC Gov. criticized Democratic candidate Beverly Perdue for an opinion she doesn't have. In fact, Perdue agrees with McCrory on state policies regarding illegal immigrants admitted to community colleges.

2. Poor Gov. Easley. He's submitted his budget to the short session of the legislature, and because it calls for increased "sin taxes" on beer and cigarettes, the N&O judges it dead-on-arrival.

3. Poor little Patty McHenry. The 10th Dist. congressman attacks Democratic candidate and decorated war hero Daniel Johnson as a Nancy Pelosi recruit and a (gack!) liberal. Dear Patrick, you're going to have to do better than that, like, starting with something that's factually accurate.

Labels: Beverly Perdue, Daniel Johnson, Mike Easley, Pat McCrory, Patrick McHenry

Daniel Johnson, the victorious 10th District Democratic congressional candidate, gets star treatment in today's Hickory Daily Record, and for good reason. Decorated military hero, a rising professional, and a proven fund-raiser. "Johnson is viewed as having the background, character and charisma to attract voters," writes Andrew Mackie.

What more could you ask for, other than a congressional district with a little more partisan balance, but Johnson has an admirable history of playing the hand he's dealt, and playing it well.

Meanwhile, the incumbent congressman is looking a little like unrefrigerated meat.

Labels: Daniel Johnson, Patrick McHenry

Say it once and don't say it again: it was a very big night for the Barack Obama campaign, a disastrous night for Hillary. And can we put aside the supposed black/white gulf, when lily-white Watauga County went for Obama by a greater percentage than the rest of the state? This despite the stumping of Bubba through our neck of the woods. Buncombe County, which hosted visits by all three Clintons, went for Obama by over 54%. So much for the "Clinton magic" in western North Carolina (and in rural America generally).

Other Big Winners
Walter Dalton, who won outright in a four-way race for the Democratic nomination for Lt. Gov. Just about everyone was predicting a run-off.

Pat McCrory, who won outright in the Republican primary for NC Gov. Beverly Perdue has now a far tougher row to hoe.

The 40+ NC mayors, including Boone's own Loretta Clawson, who endorsed Barack Obama.

Losers
Republican Appeals Court Judge John Tyson, who was knocked out in this primary by two Democratic candidates, who will now have to face each other in November: Kristin Ruth and the grandson of Sen. Sam Ervin.

Poor Fred Smith, whom we were rooting for, who proved (once again?) that free barbecue can't compete with expensive political consultants.

Congressman Patrick McHenry, who though he beat back the challenge from fellow Republican Lance Sigmon, appears to be damaged goods and must now face a gen-you-wine military hero in Democrat Daniel Johnson come November. Sigmon said prior to yesterday that he would never endorse McHenry.

Jerry Butler. What's the deal with Jerry Butler? Why did his home county of Watauga not vote for him in his win in the Republican primary for the NC-45 state senate race? Inquiring minds want to know what the home-town Republican voters were thinking.

Big Losers
Linda Daves and the North Carolina GOP. Their big negative ad against Obama -- the "eeek, a scary black man" TV spot -- did not work in a state where it might predictably have had some effect. Not only have the state Republicans looked craven and desperate to a national audience; they've also effectively slammed the door on reaching out to under-30 voters, who (1) can't countenance the theatrical incompetence of the Bush administration and (2) have apparently grown more mature than their tiresomely racist elders in the South.

Labels: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue, Daniel Johnson, Fred Smith, Hillary Clinton, John Tyson, Kristin Ruth, Lance Sigmon, Loretta Clawson, Pat McCrory, Patrick McHenry, Sam Ervin IV, Walter Dalton

Former Republican Congressman Cass Ballenger of the NC-10 has evidently now endorsed BOTH incumbent Congressman Patrick McHenry AND his primary challenger Lance Sigmon ... at least that's the most sense we can make out of this Hickory Daily Record article.

Reporter Andrew Mackie dangles this further bait on his blog about the charges and counter-charges flying about who or what Ballenger has endorsed: "The past three days rate among the strangest in my journalism career. I'm afraid ethical restraints and a multitude of off-the-record discussions keep me from elaborating."

"Cass-gate." Oh my.

But, really, don't tell us you have dirt to dish and then don't dish it.

The strangest paragraph in the Daily Record story: "In his taped message, Ballenger mentions he voted for McHenry, but changed his allegiance after new information came to light. No one in either camp would go on the record about what information Ballenger was referring to in the message."

Most insiders with knowledge of the big wheels that turn the NCGOP expect McHenry to win this primary ... which, after all, might be the best outcome for that young ex-military man Daniel Johnson who'll likely be the Democrat running for the NC-10 seat come November.

With Cass Ballenger getting such a public case of the political dry heaves over McHenry on Primary Day spells big trouble for the congressman.

Labels: Cass Ballenger, Daniel Johnson, Lance Sigmon, Patrick McHenry